One of the longest-running debates in pro football has-been who was more responsible for the Patriots’ dynasty – Tom Brady or Bill Belichick.

This past summer when Tom Brady shocked the world by announcing he was leaving New England for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that debate has taken on a new life.

The answer to the chicken or the egg Brady/Belichick debate probably lies somewhere in between. New England doesn’t play in 9 Super Bowls, winning 6 of them without either one.

The more relevant question at this point is whether Belichick made the right decision in not signing Brady to a multi-year deal as Brady was rumored to have wanted from the Patriots. When he was offered only a year-to-year contract, he bolted for Tampa Bay for more security.

As the 2020 season plays out, it’s clear the New England Patriots are not the same without Tom Brady – lending more credence to the Brady side of the debate. The Patriots are 2-5 and on a 4-game losing streak for the first time since Brady was a rookie (before he was the team’s starter).

In Brady’s 20-year career with the Pats, the team never had a losing season and missed the playoffs only once when he was healthy. The only other time the team missed the playoffs was in the 2008 season when Brady tore his ACL in his first game.

Not to add fuel to the fodder, but Bellichick’s record as a head coach with Brady? 224-66. Without Brady (at Cleveland and NE)? 51-66.

The Patriots are struggling without Tom Brady. This is largely the same group of offensive players that Brady took to the playoffs last year.

On the flipside, Brady is thriving with his new team. The Bucs are 6-2 and at the top of their division with many predicting a deep playoff run for the Brady-led team. Brady’s play and leadership have a lot to do with the team’s turnaround as he’s playing like he’s 25 and not 43.

This all begs the question if you have the QB widely considered to be the greatest of all time (GOAT), why let him leave? Why not pull out all the stops to keep him?

The Patriots replaced Tom Brady with Cam Newton, who, since his 2014 MVP year with the Carolina Panthers has been known more for his flashy outfits and hairstyles than his performance on the field. Cam is younger, faster, and flashier.

Brady often gets knocked for his corny aw-shucks personality, but there’s one thing all of his current and former teammates will tell you about him and that’s his work ethic. Nobody works harder or studies more than Brady. It’s clear the GOAT and Cam are not on the same level. For the season, Brady has thrown 20 TDs to 4 INTs. Cam has thrown 2 TDs to 7 INTs.

The Patriots decided to move on from the old, reliable GOAT, the player that made his team the second most valuable franchise in football. Since 1994 when Robert Kraft bought the team for $227 million, the team’s worth has ballooned to $4.4 billion, second only to the Dallas Cowboys. This is in large part due to the team’s rise in popularity from the Brady-driven success.

I see a lot of similarities to the Brady-Belichick situation in the investing world. Investors are constantly looking for the next big thing. They’re looking for what’s flashy and shiny. They don’t want boring, but what most don’t realize is that boring is what makes winners.

The GOAT Tom Brady made winners out of the Patriots. The Patriots decided they wanted to move in a younger direction and paid the price. In the world of investing, the one investment that has been consistent and reliable and made winners out of more investors than any other asset is commercial real estate, but many investors ignore it because it’s not “fun.”

Fun and flashy won’t make you wealthy.

Chasing hot new investments like Crypto, cannabis or the latest IPO or start-up more often than not ends up in failure. It’s no different than gambling. For every Facebook, there are a thousand failed tech startups.

Commercial real estate has consistently been the MVP of the investing world – delivering above-market risk-adjusted returns to investors for decades. Sticking to what works is generally a good investing strategy, but that doesn’t stop investors from continually chasing the next big thing.

How often have you heard something like this:

“If you had invested $10,000 in Apple’s IPO in 1980, your stock would be worth $6,756,400 today.”

The problem is that hindsight is 20/20. What nobody tells you is that hitting a home run like Apple, Google or Amazon is a crapshoot. Investing in Wall Street is mostly speculative and amounts to nothing more than gambling. Even the experts like venture capital firms were looking for home runs is all they do fail 90% of the time.

Warren Buffett is the third wealthiest man in the world but he’s never been known to chase shiny objects. He famously turned down early opportunities to invest in Google and Facebook but he’s never regretted those investment decisions.

That’s because he lives by one simple rule: “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.”

Warren Buffett understands that if he made it a habit of investing in shiny objects, sure he’d hit the occasional home run like Google and Facebook, but most of the time he would fail – 90% of the time most likely.

Warren Buffett has a few simple investing rules:

  • Invest in a business you understand.
  • Invest in businesses with intrinsic value that cash flow.
  • Look for value – for businesses others might be overlooking.

Warren Buffett’s not a gambler and investors who are continually chasing the next big thing are doing exactly what he avoids – speculating. He mitigates his risks by sticking to what works. Besides owning dividend stocks in boring, cash-flowing businesses, he also owns significant CRE assets. Once again, boring but profitable.

Real Estate is the GOAT of the investing world.

Like Tom Brady, it is weathered but it’s a proven commodity. It delivers to its investors consistent, reliable recession-resistant cash flow along with appreciation.

It’s why institutions and ultra-wealthy investors have always allocated a large chunk of their investable assets to commercial real estate. They don’t care about flash. They care about performance and real estate delivers.